YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. Those with money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die. The increase in temperatures means the atmosphere is thirstier. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. He says such measures can help, for sure. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Now what? Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. It is something in peer-reviewed, published science for decades and decades that the managers of the Colorado River have been ignoring.. 1. Nimbull: It dries up a lot of people will be hit with high priced water in stores. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. The state already is on the edge of shortages for its $4 billion Central Arizona Project. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . You cant do that with groundwater. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. An official shortage declaration from the federal government could come as early as this year, as Lake Mead is currently projected to be below 1,075 feet in elevation at the end of 2021. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. What would constitute that? During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. Many of the. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Lake Powell is in crisis. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Definitions explained. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. A severe drought could bring shortages of half a million to a million acre feet, Kuhn said. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. In the short term, yes. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. It took 16 years for it to fill. But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. The study was financed by the district, which is based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, along with the Southwestern Water Conservation District in Durango, and four water groups in Western Colorado that represent various interests. . JOHN DANKOSKY: Well, given all these users, all these various jurisdictions, are there competitions for what water is remaining? By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. Two Mexican states also receive Colorado River water. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". 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If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. Below that is deadpool level, which is where no water flows out of the lake at all, which according to Gus Levy of the Bureau of Reclamation, may cause the Grand Canyon stretch of the Colorado River to run dry, reports 12News ABC. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. . The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. In . Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. The Los Angeles Times reported that at a recent Colorado River conference in Nevada, negotiations continued about how each state can reduce its water usage. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. The . water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. . The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. Record-breaking high temperatures dragged well into fall. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). Page mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up. Its depth level currently stands at around 3,530 feet. Okay. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. Azure sets this cookie for routing production traffic by specifying the production slot. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. The Glen Canyon Institute has advocated for draining Lake Powell, both to replenish Lake Mead and to restore Glen Canyon, which was flooded to create Lake Powell. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. This summer, the water. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. 3. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. What about the idea of a water shortage? A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. The studys computer models didnt factor in rising temperatures expected in this region due to climate change. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. They don't have it under control. A variation of the _gat cookie set by Google Analytics and Google Tag Manager to allow website owners to track visitor behaviour and measure site performance. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one that provides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in. The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. Getty Images. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Water management requires planning for the future. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. 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