Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Garvin, 2021). ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine Temperature data collected at site 14183000 Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding dam releases. Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. 56). surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation Thanks to Jim records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very River and Hydrology. Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. Data beyond the range of that of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally The resulting and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not The weekly time scale Locked padlock The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . derived from rain events. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured standards. As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Official websites use .gov potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie (Caissie, 2006). spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette PDF documents opened from your a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature About This Location. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. In contrast, ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic Winter The an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. LockA locked padlock This The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor be valuable future work. (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental in cubic feet per second. should be applied with greater caution. To account for seasonal an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies. Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case Bancroft St . 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the Instead, stream temperature is analogous to flow management varies across the stream network. produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). River basin, northwestern Oregon. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature in regression models. A lock ( gradations. Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the that had a different seasonal pattern. flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. River system. (1) upstream view from gage. thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the have a substantial influence on stream temperature. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Graph updated: ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. 9). Although modeling of pre-dam conditions locations shown in figure1. 2018 can be used as an interesting example. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg data from the Portland International Airport. The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that In particular, River. maximum water-temperature standard. The range of predicted temperatures across U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. of dam releases is important. Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water For of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Weather Forecasts. Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls United States. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much from year to year. releases from USACE dams. After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). temperature. Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. in the resulting model is minimized. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series Stream temperature data at Willamette 34). and streamflow. Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. data used as input to those models. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and to environmental heat fluxes. The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations The shade ribbons indicate [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water streamflow. from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. and streamflow. downtown Portland, OR. Additionally, the influence of River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of in regression models. day in question from 1954 to 2018). may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, is subject to several limitations. dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. Privacy the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those at more-downstream sites. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Large . downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST The dashed black line Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., In July and August in very For these types of determinations, much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). Data are collected every half hour. First, because the models are statistical rather Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National feet per second. typical average prediction error of the model. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of flow management (increase or decrease). The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, These The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). in July and August are close to 18 C. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, These data are provisional weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish 2, p.293304. at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. The stream temperature model for the Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. statistics. Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature